中海物業(2669.HK):內外兼修 破繭成蝶
報吿要點:中海物業背靠央企中建、中海系,股東資源優勢得天獨厚;近年來,公司開始發力外拓端,效果同樣顯著;業務端,相比同行,公司有更大的市場化定價空間與增值服務探索點作為新的增長引擎;此外,公司在高速發展的同時不忘持續降本增效。基於以上各維度觀測,我們看好公司中長期實現穩健業績增長,首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。物業管理服務:1)在管面積快速提升:中海物業在管面積由2019 年1.5 億,快速提升至2021 年末2.6 億;2)關聯方佔比下降:2019 年在管面積中超過9成來自於關聯方,2021 年關聯方佔比降至72%;3)外拓發力,結構優化:公司2019 年-2021 年外拓面積分別為1500 萬方、2837 萬方、5809 萬方,2 年間翻2 倍;業態上看,2021 年公司新增面積住宅業態佔比已降至5 成以下,其他多元業態如產業園區、商業寫字樓等佔比提升;4)管控提效:公司行政費用率自2017 年開始持續下降,2021 年公司管理費用率已降至5%以下,在物業公司中處在最優梯隊。增值服務:非住户增值服務:1)毛利率有提升空間:公司非住户增值服務收入由2019 年的9.2 億港元增值2021 年的17.9 億港元,較低毛利率的工程服務收入佔比提升拉低了板塊整體毛利率,但我們認為公司一部分非住户增值服務業務存在內部定價,未來若切換至市場定價,毛利率有修復空間;2)興海物聯對外輸出能力強勁:公司智能建築整體解決方案物聯網平台—興海物聯已遍佈70 多個一二線城市,合作項目達2000 餘個,2021 年簽約項目中第三方佔比超過7 成;住户增值服務高頻消費類業務增長迅速:公司住户增值服務從2020 年4.97 億增至2021 年8.11 億;結構上看,近兩年購物協助佔比快速提升,這部分業務毛利率一般低於抽傭模式的空間運營與住宅租賃等業務,長期看,發展高頻線下線上消費類業務有助於對沖週期類業務的下滑,同時也是處在能夠實現長期增長的優質消費行業賽道。投資建議:我們認為公司多維度處在創新與優化通道,看好公司未來持續性盈利。預計公司2022-2024 年實現收入103.72 億、137.88 億、176.55 億人民幣元;歸母淨利潤10.51 億、13.66 億、17.45 億人民幣元,當前股價對應PE 分別為22.1 倍 、17.0 倍 、13.3 倍。首次覆蓋,給予“買入”評級。風險提示:房地產行業下行超預期、物業費市場化進度低於預期、行業競爭加劇影響公司擴張速度、引用數據滯後或不及時。
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