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《大行報告》中金:民營房企現金流壓力短期或有加強 內房股受情緒影響波動性增
中金發表內房行業報告表示,內地上周共48個城市披露周度銷售數據,新房銷售面積按周下降7%,按年下降35%(上上周-37%);7月前兩周銷售面積累計按年下降35%。 該行指,7月新房銷售面積按周走低、按年降幅擴闊至逾三成,認為這主要是受6月推盤高峰減退影響。往前看,考慮到近期居民購房情緒或受壓制,後市銷售修復的不確定性有所增強,疊加第三季度企業信用債到期較為密集,民營房企現金流壓力短期或有加強,但後市走勢仍須觀察供給側相關舉措的推出節奏和執行效果,該行預計短期內房股受情緒影響波動性可能加強。 中期而言,該行認為優質龍頭房企仍將更多受益於基本面邊際修復,長期演繹出集中度提升邏輯的確定性仍在,建議擇機逢低吸納,內房H股看好華潤置地(01109.HK)、中國海外(00688.HK)、越秀地產(00123.HK)、綠城中國(03900.HK)、中國海外宏洋(00081.HK)、美的置業(03990.HK);物管板塊看好保利物業(06049.HK)、中海物業(02669.HK)、華潤萬像生活(01209.HK)。(wl/u) ~
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