加息預期升溫，如何看待近期聯儲態度與市場預期？
上週衰退擔憂暫時退溫後，市場對於聯儲的緊縮預期進一步上行。鑑於聯儲此前表態，貨幣政策選擇將取決於通脹是否有明顯緩解的證據，本週三的CPI數據或十分重要。聯儲短期之內大概率傾向於選擇「長痛不如短痛」，在當前經濟還有韌性的時期快速加息。往後看，聯儲收緊道路上，「衰退交易」和「緊縮交易」的交替很可能將會繼續重演。
上週聯儲公佈6月FOMC會議紀要，超預期的非農數據疊加多位聯儲官員支持7月加息75bp，加息預期升溫。
對於近期聯儲態度與市場預期的解讀，我們認爲：
超預期非農疊加聯儲官員鷹派發言，加息預期升溫。超預期的非農數據緩解了市場對於衰退的擔憂，爲快速加息創造了條件，加息預期再度升溫。多位聯儲官員發表鷹派言論，此前較爲鴿派的亞特蘭大聯儲主席博斯蒂克也主張7月加息75bp，表達了控制通脹的強烈決心。
面對市場對於經濟衰退的擔憂，美聯儲理事沃勒和聖路易斯聯儲主席布拉德均認爲「美聯儲很有可能實現軟着陸」，「現在討論衰退還爲時過早」。當前期貨隱含2022年全年加息預期從上週的314bp升至328bp，CME期貨隱含7月加息75bp概率上升至90%以上的水平。
市場通脹預期有所下行，供應鏈壓力放緩。衰退預期緩和後，10年期美債收益率快速上行至3%以上，而隱含的通脹預期卻整體較上週有小幅回落。供應鏈情況來看，美國供應鏈壓力持續緩解。物流經理人指數LMI持續回落至65，2020年7月以來首次低於65.3的歷史平均水平，其中交運價格、倉儲價格、庫存花銷均大幅改善。港口擁堵以及船隻等待時間整體呈現下降的趨勢。總體來看，在供給端勞動力超額快速回補以及需求放緩的共同作用下，物流環節最棘手的時間正逐漸過去，供應鏈對通脹的壓力可能會逐漸得到緩解。
聯儲走鋼絲道路上，「衰退交易」和「緊縮交易」或將繼續交替。上週衰退擔憂暫時退溫後，市場對於聯儲的緊縮預期進一步上行。鑑於聯儲此前表態，貨幣政策選擇將取決於通脹是否有明顯緩解的證據，本週三的CPI數據或十分重要。聯儲短期之內大概率傾向於選擇「長痛不如短痛」，在當前經濟還有韌性的時期快速加息。
然而，當前貨幣政策已造成資產價格的大幅波動，美聯儲想要實現經濟軟着陸困難不小。6月FOMC會議紀要顯示，大多數與會者認爲金融環境進一步收緊對經濟活動造成負面影響可能是當前最大的下行風險之一。往後看，聯儲收緊道路上，「衰退交易」和「緊縮交易」的交替很可能將會繼續重演。
風險提示：通脹持續性超預期，美聯儲貨幣政策收緊超預期。
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