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華泰證券:內房銷售拐點初現 有望迎來新一輪行情
內房股今日(20日)股價抽高,四大藍籌內房龍湖(00960.HK)、碧桂園(02007.HK)、華潤置地(01109.HK)、中海外(00688.HK)升約5%至9%。華泰證券早前發表報告表示,今年5月全國商品房銷售面積和金額按年降幅較4月收窄各7.2及8.9個百分點。這與該行整理的高頻數據趨勢相符,且6月以來改善勢頭仍在延續,4月及5月60城新房成交面積按年下滑57%及51%,對比6月1至14日按年下滑42%,按月上升40%。該行認為銷售已經出現拐點,但受疫情反覆、地產供需預期雙弱、經濟下行損害購買力等因素的共同影響,銷售景氣度仍處於低位,仍需要政策的持續支持。 從需求端的角度來看,該行認為後續政策空間,料第一是房貸利率的繼續下行、第二是政策進一步向高能級城市非核心區域蔓延;第三是不排除進一步降低首付比例的可能。 該行指,5月以來部分民營房企在監管機構幫助下,通過信用違約掉期、信用風險緩釋憑證等信用保護工具,為其發行債券提供額外保障。華泰證券認為除了公開市場發債支持之外,央國企和AMC(國有資產管理公司)發起市場化收併購、出險房企集團層面引入戰投等方向仍可期待合作落地,港股方面推薦潤地、龍湖、中國外、旭輝控股(00884.HK)、碧桂園;而物管公司推薦中海物業(02669.HK)、保利物業(06049.HK)、碧桂園服務(06098.HK)、招商局積餘(001914.SZ)、旭輝永升服務(01995.HK)、新大正(002968.SZ)手等。 華泰證券預計內房板塊將迎來基本面逐步復甦及政策利好共振的階段,在前期調整過後有望迎來新一輪行情,看好強信用房企銷售和拿地先於行業復甦、強於行業復甦帶來的投資機會。
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