《大行報告》瑞銀:電力市場改革料驅動中資電力股估值重評 首選龍源(00916.HK)、信義能源(03868.HK)及潤電(00836.HK)
瑞銀發表研究報告,指深入研究內地電力市場改革後,維持對內地能源價值鏈正面看法,在計入任何資產注入前,推動該行對中資電力股2022至2024年盈測較市場同業平均高出8%。該行對改革主要總結,包括能源生產商(煤電及再生能源)透過向市場售電,有更大定價能力及電價彈性,中期帶來12%至15%的股本收益率(ROE)。新興板塊「供電輔助服務」有8%可觀ROE,但似乎被市場忽略。另電力物聯網公司料見軟件需求上升及收入增長。
該行相信深入電力市場改革將意味未來更多催化劑,包括潛在強制購買綠色能源;綠色能源銷量上升;碳交易增加。在價值鏈裡,該行喜好能源生產商及電力物聯網公司。能源生產商現估值相當於預測今年市賬率0.7至2.3倍,本年至今累跌約16%,與MSCI中國指數年內累跌18%相若。參考過去估值範圍及全球同業,料股份可獲估值重評至預測市賬率介乎2.5倍至3倍。
瑞銀稱,在中資電力板塊首選龍源(00916.HK)、信義能源(03868.HK)及華潤電力(00836.HK)。龍源屬內地電力市場改革核心受惠者,在純再生能源發電商中,料龍源帶來最強盈利增長,2021至2024年複合年均增長率料達34%。該行亦喜好信義能源,作為民營再生能源發電商,有最強勁現金流及最低槓桿。該行亦喜好潤電指其ROE改善,不過分拆方面的不確定性短期或牽制股價。
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