滯脹將擊潰一切？達利歐：各國央行料在2024年被迫降息
橋水基金創始人達利歐(Ray Dalio)近日表示，世界各國央行將不得不在兩年內重新開始降息，在受到一輪具有破壞性的滯脹打擊後，努力重建經濟。
達利歐本週在接受澳洲媒體採訪時指出，滯脹最終會對美國經濟造成巨大傷害，以至於央行將不得不在2024年——也就是下次美國總統選舉年再次降息。
達利歐表示，“我們相信，我們當前所處於的緊縮模式，可能導致許多金融資產出現調整或下跌。這將帶來巨大的痛苦，迫使各國央行再次放鬆政策，這一切可能會發生在接近2024年下屆美國總統大選時。”
當前全球通脹壓力激增——疫情後的供應鏈中斷、俄烏衝突助長的能源危機和廣泛的消費者需求復甦，共同推動了本輪物價飛漲的完美風暴。
美聯儲今年已經在3月和5月先後加息了兩次，預計未來數月還將進一步收緊貨幣政策，以抑制目前處於40年高位的通脹。摩根士丹利等華爾街投行預計，美聯儲料將繼續收緊貨幣政策，直到其將聯邦基金利率從目前的0.75%-1%區間升至3.125%。
與此同時，全球已有至少逾60個貨幣當局，早於美聯儲或跟隨美聯儲在年內採取了緊縮行動。
(全球主要央行貨幣政策動向) 然而，本輪緊縮週期的一系列風險也已經開始浮現：在美國和世界各地，通脹目前依然維持在高位，但許多業內人士已擔心經濟增速可能最終放緩、並導致就業崗位銳減，這是滯脹的典型案例。摩根士丹利的模型目前就預計，美國經濟未來出現衰退的概率已達到35%，而在今年早些時候僅爲15%。
達利歐早在去年其實就已預見到這一幕。他表示，“這是一種結構性通貨膨脹，最終將導致滯脹。”
他將居高不下的通脹歸咎於政府和企業的持續支出，而這些支出的回報如今都正呈現遞減。他表示，“支出將遠遠超過收入。赤字將會出現。這種情況將持續很長一段時間，因此，我們不會想持有現金或債券，並建議買入通脹對衝資產。”
值得一提的是，達利歐對滯脹的最新擔憂，無疑也與世界銀行本週最新的預期不謀而合。
世行行長馬爾帕斯在週二公佈的最新《全球經濟展望報告》中表示，“世界經濟正再次處於危險之中，眼下同時面臨高通脹和增長放緩的局面。即使全球經濟衰退得以避免，滯脹之痛也可能持續數年，除非供應大幅增加。”
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