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國金證券:會議釋放積極政策信號 互聯網行業估值有望觸底向上

國金證券發佈研究報告稱,互聯網細分板塊長期增長趨勢不變,預計2H22本地生活/電商率先恢復,長短視頻等降本增效效果逐漸體現。本地生活方面,疫情影響短期,建議關注業務韌性強、疫後本地生活場景有望修復的美團-W(03690);建議關注“自營+供應鏈”優勢穩固的電商平臺京東集團-SW(09618);社交板塊用戶量穩定粘性高,競爭壁壘高,建議關注騰訊控股(00700)下半年業績將迎邊際改善及視頻號商業化;短視頻流量增長趨緩,建議關注廣告+電商快速滲透、1Q降本增效超預期的快手;長視頻步入提價週期,降本增效拉高盈利是未來主線,關注自制內綜藝實力強勁、片單儲備豐富的芒果超媒(300413.SZ)

國金證券主要觀點如下:

政策+估值:4/5月召開的會議釋放積極政策信號,行業估值有望觸底向上。

22年4月29日,中央政治局會議召開,明確提出要促進經濟健康發展,完成平臺經濟轉向整改,實施常態化監管;5月17日,“推動數字經濟持續健康發展”專題協商會召開,積極信號繼續釋放。21年初以來,傳媒(申萬)指數和恆生科技指數均整體下行,截至22年6月6日,分別下跌25.6%、45.8%,當前估值均處於歷史低位,行業或將迎來估值修復。

業績:1H22整體承壓,關注下半年疫情消退後的修復。

1)疫情致使1Q22整體承壓,2Q或爲業績底部。從騰訊、快手-W(01024)1Q22業績表現看,整體承壓,主要系疫情反覆所致,2Q疫情逐步恢復中,下半年有望迎來業績修復。

2)港股互聯網龍頭4Q21收入增速放緩,降本增效舉措推動美團等公司虧損收窄。騰訊、美團21年收入同比增速逐季度下滑,快手、嗶哩嗶哩-SW(09626)業務變現尚未成熟,2Q21收入增速均有所上升,整體有所震盪;盈利端,美團、快手、嗶哩嗶哩虧損幅度均有所收窄,降本增效穩步推進中。

下半年投資方向關鍵詞:細分龍頭/疫後修復/降本增效。

1)細分龍頭:競爭壁壘高,業績韌勁強。互聯網平臺方面,騰訊社交壁壘強,短期主要是產品線和行業壓力,長期來看以社交爲基本盤在發展中具備強競爭力,美團是本地生活龍頭,經營數據增長仍然強勁;長短視頻方面,快手是短視頻龍頭之一,社區生態持續繁榮,廣告與直播電商業務在加速滲透,芒果超媒自制綜藝優勢顯著,2Q22開始精品綜藝開始密集上線,有望拉動業績增長;

2)疫後修復:電商、本地生活等有望在消費場景修復下恢復,線下場景受疫情衝擊,隨疫情逐步得到管控,電商、本地生活、金融支付有望直接受益;疫情影響廣告主投放節奏和意願,疫後平臺型公司廣告業務有望受益於全年廣告預算的集中投放。

3)降本增效:互聯網流量見頂,用戶量增長空間有限,靠流量增長的方式難以持續,收入端,整體增速放緩,關注變現端尚未成熟公司的商業化進展;盈利端,分化較嚴重,關注未穩定實現盈利的公司降本增效進程的推進。

風險提示:政策風險,行業競爭加劇,遊戲產品或內容上線不及預期風險,數據統計結果與實際情況偏差風險

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