You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
高盛唱多!未來12個月MSCI中國指數有望反彈20%
uSMART盈立智投 06-02 15:19

高盛中國首席策略分析師Kinger Lau團隊發表報告,談及近期市場對中資股的10大關鍵討論,高盛認同監管行動令企業盈利可預測度下跌、清零政策令經濟增長難達國務院5.5%目標,最新地緣政治風險引發外資減持中資股,但該行認爲中國股市估值偏低,已大致反映負面情緒,重申看好MSCI中國指數未來12個月可反彈20%。

高盛表示,當中國政策轉向時,投資者可追入受惠股,如受惠財政政策刺激公司、國企內房股、互聯網股和疫情後復甦股,並列出5大政策主題受惠股。

該行續指,當內地放寬財政政策、貨幣政策、地產政策、監管政策和疫情政策,地產、消費者服務、資本品、交通、半導體行業股份往往反應更正面,但耐用品、餐飲、能源、生物科技和科技硬件股份反應較平淡。

高盛:中資股估值低非買入的充分條件

高盛表示,MSCI中國指數目前估值爲10.4倍,較歷史平均值低0.4個標準差,雖然低估值從來不是買入的充分條件,但屬潛在強勁回報的必要條件,尤其指出中國互聯網行業合理估值較現價40%潛在升幅,市場對中概股除牌消息反應過敏。

對於美國經濟或步入衰退,高盛承認,中國股市在美國衰退的情景中難有正數回報,但往往能在美股回調逾10%時跑贏美股。

高盛又指,從該行大宗經紀(Prime Brokerage)數據顯示,對衝基金近18個月已沽出300億美元中資股,滬深港通北向通年初至今淨買入僅1400萬美元,但相對於外資2021年從韓國等三地股市走資630億美元,外資沽出中資股的情況未算嚴重。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account