《大行報告》高盛下調阿里(09988.HK)目標價至154元 評級「買入」
高盛發表研究報告指,在宏觀因素及激烈競爭下,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)第四財季業績仍好過預期,收入及經調整EBITA較市場預期高4%及9%。
期內客戶管理收入(CMR)表現持平,表現好過該行預期的下跌6%,主要由於廣告收入錄得增長。管理層透露,淘寶及天貓4月GMV將按年下跌逾10個百分點,5月份情況則有所改善。高盛認為,4月CMR表現與GMV下降趨勢將一致,現在估計6月底止首財季CMR將下降10%,好過市場預期。
淘寶特價版及淘菜菜業務的合併虧損在於第三財季度達到高峰,上季有所收窄,管理層預計虧損幅度將繼續收窄。高盛並預期,今年6月底止首財季GMV及CMR將按年下跌10%,並於未來三個季度恢復增長,其中GMV將持平、增長5%及10%,而CMR預期將增長1%、6%及11%。在業務復甦、投資策略見成效及嚴格成本控制下,高盛預期至2023年3月底止第四財季中國商務EBITA將中止跌勢,反彈回升15%。
基於對業務最新預測,高盛將目標價從180元下調至至154元,評級「買入」,將阿里2023至2025財年收入預測分別下調4%、6%及7%,預期中國商業CMR於2022至2025財年的年複合增長率為9%。
該行預測2023財年集團整體收入將增長9%至9,270億元人民幣,全年調整後EBITDA按年持平達到1,300億元人民幣,首財季收入料達2,068億元人民幣。
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