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《大行報告》高盛:新「後現代」周期下通脹風險大於通縮 較高利率意味投資回報減弱
阿思達克 05-10 10:26
高盛發表報告指,低通脹、獨立央行、全球化、低波動性、更長周期及更高經濟增長利潤,推動了上世紀80年代的「現代」周期演變。該行認為,目前市場正進入新的「後現代」周期,於此周期中,通脹比通縮風險更大,並可能出現更大的區域化、更為昂貴的勞動力及商品,以及更大更積極的政府。 由於較高的利率意味對估值的貢獻下降,因此該行料此周期的投資回報應會減弱,預期市場會出現較長期牛市更寬闊及扁平(Fat & Flat)的情況,並更為關注Alpha而非Beta,投資者或更關心毛利而非收入。 高盛提到,投資者應關注可調整商業模式的「適應者」,及透過降低能源和勞動力成本以提高效率的「推動者和創新者」,相信有高/穩定毛利的企業會是資本開支增加的受惠者。
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