《大行报告》瑞银建议增持美科技股及房托 通胀消退下减持资源及工业股
瑞银发表报告,上调美股科技股及房托至「增持」,并下调工业股至「减持」。
其中科技股受惠相对增长与动力改善、较高质素、较强定价能力、低成本曝险及潜在派息。估值及利率上升为隐忧,但增长与周期因素更应受关注。劳工成本上涨将使资讯科技及软件开支有大量上望空间。该行相对偏好软件及服务股,多於半导体股及硬件股。
房托则受惠稳定增长、更佳价格及较低成本曝险。
资源及工业股方面,瑞银则予「减持」,基於周期风险及通胀消退,不少工业股面对重大成本问题,但铁路及航空与军工股相对较佳。
报告指,投资者对通胀/利率、增长/衰退,以及盈利/利润率的忧虑上升,市场内部已快速调节。根据该行模型,按估值推算,企业盈利进入後经济周期的概率在2个月内急升35个百分点,2018至2019年的後经济周期需要15个月才达致有关幅度。今年以来对美联储预期的转变较正常相距3个标准差,十年期及两年期孳息曲线平坦化速度亦较正常相距2个标准差。
报告指,俄乌冲突风险自2月底以来支配相对回报,部分风险仍计算在内,但在实质利率及通胀预期重设情况下,经济增长将为更重要推动因素。
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