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惠譽:阿里巴巴(09988.HK)增長放緩 但評級空間仍充裕
評級機構惠譽表示,零售銷售放緩、新冠肺炎疫情反彈疊加競爭加劇,短期內將繼續令阿里巴巴(09988.HK)的盈利能力和現金生成能力承壓,但該公司的信用狀況將保持穩定。 惠譽認為,阿里巴巴在中國電商和雲服務領域享有市場領先地位,公司採用保守的資本結構,流動性充裕,這些因素對其信用狀況形成支持。在惠譽授評中資互聯網發行人中,阿里巴巴仍為評級空間最充裕的企業。 惠譽預期,中國宏觀經濟層面的挑戰以及日趨激烈的市場競爭,將使阿里巴巴的營收增速在截至2022年3月的財年自2021財年的41%降至約19%,並在2023財年進一步降至低雙位數。部分地區的疫情防控措施以及房地產市場疲弱導致消費者情緒低迷,而由於監管力度持續加碼,教育、互聯網和房地產相關板塊的失業率已有所攀升。惠譽預計,2022年上半年中國零售市場增長將延續2021年末以來的疲軟態勢。 此外,惠譽料在政府激勵措施的支持下,中國零售市場或將於2022年下半年復甦,而在此之前,短期內阿里巴巴的盈利能力仍將承壓。儘管如此,阿里巴巴已將重心轉向優質增長以及減少「淘特」和「淘菜菜」業務的運營虧損。獲客費用的降低以及地區訂單密度提高所致單位經濟效益的改善應將有助於支持該公司的盈利能力。 整體而言,惠譽預計,2022財年阿里巴巴的營運EBIT將按年下滑15%,主要原因在於增長型業務投資規模擴大、用戶增長方面的支出走高以及對商戶的支持增加。預計阿里巴巴的營運EBIT將於2023財年恢復增長,儘管可能為個位數增速。
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