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《大行報告》高盛下調百勝中國(09987.HK)目標價至513元 評級「買入」
高盛發表研究報告指,成本通脹加上疫情阻礙經營,百勝中國(09987.HK)去槓桿壓力上升,運營支出增加,令去年第四季業績表現遜於預期,預期今年上半年短期利潤率仍然疲軟,對集團同店銷售復甦前景構成壓力。 該行表示,仍看好公司在健康的門店經濟支持下探索增長空間,長遠而言加大對數字及基礎設施的投資將提高效率。高盛指,百勝中國2022年淨擴張目標仍然積極,管理層目標發掘現有城市的增量場外需求及未進入的低線城市,去年上半年大部分新店在開業首三個月達到盈虧平衡。 高盛認爲,成本通脹壓力持續,百勝短期內同店銷售仍可能面臨壓力,雖然去年11月起情況略有改善,但以人民幣計算同店銷售仍按年下跌,預計2022年首季及第二季同店銷售將按年下跌8%及6%。該行預期百勝通過完善的端到端數字化和自動化,將可更好地控制門店運營質量,未來在探索特許經營機會方面將持開放態度,短期內大部分新開店將繼續採用直營模式,預期特許經營模式將主要用於偏遠地區和高速公路/加油站等新市場。 該行維持「買入」評級,將2022至2023年淨利潤預測下調5%至9%,以反映去槓桿壓力上升,目標價相應由537元下調至513元,仍然看好百勝透過強大品牌定位、創新能力、執行效率和嚴格的成本管理所帶來的長期增長機會。
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