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《大行報告》瑞銀:人行降息確認更大政策支持力度以穩增長 春節前流動性風險已降
阿思達克 01-18 12:04
瑞銀髮表研究報告,指人行週一(17日)下調一年期MLF利率10點子,至2.85%,並下調7天期逆回購利率至2.1%。該行相信市場已預期人行降MLF利率,料未來地方政府債券(LGB)收益率走向取決於貨幣政策會否進一步放寬;以及經濟數據能否印證宏觀基本面改善。對股市而言,該行料上述兩因素對能否重拾向上動力亦屬關鍵,特別是當局可展示穩增長決心的領域,如基建投資反彈及更多的房地產政策寬鬆。 短期而言,瑞銀料春節前流動性波動風險已下降。昨日人行擴大MLF及逆回購已預示人行已準備更快LGB發行及應付春節假期影響。隨着MLF及逆回購降息,市場利率的中間數及波動區間亦相應下降。 瑞銀補充,人行降MLF及逆回購利率確認更大政策支持力度以穩增長。長遠而言,考慮信貸增長刺激,相信人行將採一系列政策工具以維持寬鬆流動性環境,內地社會融資規模(TSF)增量今年上半年料加快。不過,由於1月及2月的經濟數據集中於3月發佈,而非信貸數據,料未有足夠宏觀數據確認短期經濟復甦力度。去年12月信貸數據確認TSF增量按年加快,惟中至長期企業信貸仍疲弱。隨着人行降息,市場料短期不會有進一步減息。同時,基本面上行壓力仍有限,國債收益率料維持窄幅波動。在缺乏宏觀數據下,該行認爲市場應關注或影響市場風險胃納的高頻數據,如LGB發行速度及基建項目進展,以及房地產政策調整以及銷售數據。
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