You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
地產板塊迎最佳配置窗口? 機構看好這些股

機構認爲,2021Q4-2022Q1是房地產板塊最佳配置窗口。本輪行情結構分化特徵將更爲顯著,行情表現上將出現明顯的公司Alpha重於行業Beta的情況,部分優質公司將脫穎而出。

調控週期趨於尾聲,行業格局有望優化

監管對於弱化房地產行業金融屬性決心堅定。房企被動降槓桿,但遭遇市場自發進入下行週期、部分房企信用風險事件暴露引發地方政府預售資金監管趨嚴,行業流動性危機開始蔓延。站在當前時點,本輪始於2020年8月「三線四檔」融資規則的房地產金融政策調控週期,已到尾聲並開始有所改善。但是行業最大的基本面即銷售還在大幅下滑,故我們判斷低信用高負債的房企難以很快走出危機。而對於那些經過本輪大浪淘沙後最終活下來的房企來說,競爭格局將改善,其生命週期也將拉得更長。

2022年行業各核心指標預計延續下滑趨勢,2021Q4~2022Q1將成地產板塊最佳配置窗口

預計2022年銷售面積、新開工面積、投資增速分別爲-5.0%、-5.0%、+1.1%。當前行業政策已經見底,並有所改善,而基本面數據處於繼續下行過程中,尚未進入到恢復期。由於今年上半年增長高基數,明年上半年從數據層面依舊不樂觀,預計到2022年3月開始的「小陽春」銷售可能獲得邊際改善。故2021Q4~2022Q1基本面數據大概率繼續下行,而政策暖意也會較爲明顯,這段時期是配置地產板塊的最佳時期。

本輪行情結構分化特徵將更爲顯著,行情表現上將出現明顯的公司Alpha重於行業Beta的情況,部分優質公司將脫穎而出。

1. 對於開發商板塊,不同房企在本輪政策見底回暖過程中經營目標不同,一進一退之間分化加劇,信用分層特徵更爲明顯。而現有政策框架下,規模掉隊的房企難以東山再起,集中度將往財務穩健房企提升。以上是本輪房地產金融政策框架帶來的與以往最大不同。繼續推薦高信用開發商,尤其是央企。推薦A股:保利發展、招商蛇口、萬科A、金地集團、萬業企業;港股:華潤置地、中國海外發展、龍湖集團、旭輝控股集團、中國金茂。

2. 對於物管板塊,國內房地產規模足夠大,將爲物管行業整體發展提供基本面支撐。重點物企仍處於規模和利潤雙增的黃金髮展期,成長速度遠高於行業,因此將繼續帶來投資機會。但在當前行業變局下,我們認爲關聯開發商因子將成選股首要考慮因素,應當優選高信用開發商相關聯的物企,或弱地產背景而受行業洗牌影響小的物企。推薦A股:招商積餘、新大正;港股:碧桂園服務、旭輝永升服務、保利物業。

3. 對於商業板塊,儘管近期國內社零增速低迷,但品牌購物中心的零售表現顯著好於總體消費增速水平,而奢侈品零售增速更佔優勢。繼續看好頭部零售商業地產商和商管公司的表現。推薦A股:新城控股;港股:華潤置地、龍湖集團、華潤萬象生活、寶龍商業。

風險提示:房地產政策調控超預期;市場下行幅度超預期;疫情反覆導致購物中心運營受不利影響。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account