病毒對未來股市有何影響？五個全球頂級投行來支招
病毒變異的出現讓華爾街專家警告說，市場可能會出現更多波動，但熊市未必即將到來。
來源：Wind
上週五全球股市大幅下跌，投資者紛紛削減風險敞口。目前市場對這種變異的瞭解還不多，但隨着新信息的披露，華爾街的頂級策略師和經濟學家們不得不調整他們的看法。
高盛首席經濟學家簡•哈祖斯(Jan Hatzius)根據變異的潛在結果，分析了未來全球經濟的四種情景。在一種不利的情況下，這種變種被證明在逃避疫苗方面比德爾塔病毒略更具傳染性和有效性，並會在2022年初引發另一波感染，但不會對長期經濟預測產生重大變化。
富國銀行高級股票分析師克裏斯•哈維預計，本週市場將出現更多波動，變異可能會擴大供應鏈問題和迴歸辦公室的不確定性前景。不過，他警告說，在瞭解更多情況之前，不要做出重大投資決定。他談到目前不建議將風險化解爲疲弱。」
瑞士信貸策略師安德魯•加斯韋特(Andrew Garthwaite)仍對股票持加碼態度，他表示，一旦有關該變異更多細節傳出，近期的拋售可能會逆轉。未知因素仍然很多，但我們的基本假設是，它更具傳染性，即使減少疫苗接種，之前疫苗接種也會保持一定的效力。目前可能需要兩週時間才能找到關於疫苗有效性、死亡率和傳播性的數據。其認爲，不確定性通常會導致價格暫時走低。在過去的18個月裏，這樣的恐慌是短暫的。
德意志銀行(Deutsche Bank)經濟學家Phil O 'Donaghoe警告說，未來幾周可能會有更多的波動，但他指出，製藥商關於改變疫苗能力的評論可能有助於限制長期的損害。「媒體對目前已知的關於該變體的大量評論，但確定的消息很少。週五的市場反應表明，市場將對未來幾天或幾周的消息非常敏感，不管是好消息還是壞消息。」
瑞銀全球財富管理首席投資長Mark Haefele也提醒投資者，在對該變數有更多瞭解之前，不要採取重大行動，但他也指出，該變數可能會改變央行的緊縮路徑。
根據目前可獲得的信息，我們的基本假設是，變體不能保證我們改變我們的觀點，即全球經濟在全面重新開放的道路上會非常坎坷，但增長將是強勁的。值得注意的是，疫情對增長前景的影響的擔憂，也應減輕投資者對過早收緊貨幣政策的擔憂。
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