以史爲鑑：即使美聯儲明年開始加息，美股仍可能延續漲勢
投資者一直以來存在一個固有認知，即當美聯儲加息時，美股往往表現不佳，因爲當利率上升時，人們的儲蓄意願將升溫，從而抑制對股票等風險資產的需求。然而歷史數據卻講述了一個不同的故事。
根據市場研究公司DataTrek Research的數據，自1990年以來，當美聯儲加息時，標普500指數僅在兩年出現了下跌：2000年下跌9%以及2018年下跌4%。鑑於此，該公司認爲投資者不必擔心美聯儲可能在明年某個時候開始加息。
“有很多理由對美股大盤股感到不安，但美聯儲加息並非我們的最大擔憂。”DataTrek聯合創始人尼古拉斯•克拉斯（Nicholas Colas）在上週五的一份報告中表示。
根據芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的美聯儲觀察工具（Fed watch Tool），聯邦基金利率期貨目前顯示明年晚些時候加息的可能性超過75%。本月早些時候，在消費者價格數據顯示美國通脹率達到1990年以來的最高水平後，美聯儲加息可能性大幅上升。
但正如之前的緊縮週期所顯示的那樣，“在美聯儲加息時，美股大盤股下跌是非常不尋常的，”Colas表示。
加息週期在1990年代出現過兩次，2000年代和2010年代分別出現過一次。報告顯示，在這三個年代，標普500指數的複合年增長率分別達到了17.9%、10.3%和9.2%。
Colas指出，過去30年所帶來的教訓是，當美聯儲過度收緊金融環境時，股市纔會下跌，就像2018年底那樣。
“這可能會在美聯儲加息週期（市場認爲將於明年夏季開啓）的某個時點發生，但肯定不會馬上發生，”他補充道。這是因爲美國聯邦基金利率目前處於0%至0.25%的最低區間，而且需要多次加息0.25個百分點，利率纔會不再被視爲處於“歷史低位”。
換句話說，根據DataTrek的數據，美股能夠承受美聯儲數次加息，尤其是在基礎經濟仍在增長的情況下，而加息不足以成爲投資者拋售美股的理由。
上週五，標普500指數收跌6.58點，或0.14%，報4697.96點；從周線來看，該基準股指上週上揚0.3%。年內迄今，標普500指數已66次刷新收盤紀錄，累計漲幅達近27%。
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