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《大行報告》高盛料明年中國經濟增長放緩至4.8% 上調離岸中國股票建議至「增持」
阿思達克 11-12 13:34
高盛發表研究報告,指展望明年,中國宏觀經濟仍富挑戰性,中國經濟增長料低於5%,料實際經濟增長4.8%,撇除危機年份以外屬紀錄最低,2023年增幅料進一步放緩至4.6%,其與全球其他地區的增速差距料縮窄至四十年來最少。經濟負面因素已廣爲流傳,即房地產市場去槓桿延長。中國「清零」政策及對消費的拖累,隨着全球經濟重啓,出口增長正常化,上遊通脹加劇將損害企業盈利能力。中國亦面對人口老化及高系統槓桿的結構問題。 在此背景下,明年MSCI中國指數每股盈利料增長7%,較市場預期低出7個百分點,主要反映房地產市場風險。不過,該行相信明年中國股市表現更佳,因市場自重大調整復甦,並踏入「憧憬未來」階段。高盛對中國股市估值修復預期,建基於中國需要政策放寬以防範系統性風險,在全球普遍「收水」的情況下逆向而行。另外,「二十大」將於明年11月舉行,在重大事件前在「維穩」下股市傾向表現向好。另監管的清晰度及集中度潛在改善,有助紓緩互聯網企業的估值風險及提振其公平值。再者,中國股票現時估值相當於預測市盈率12.7倍,屬五年範圍低端,而中國股票估值對全球股票折讓幅度已擴至歷來最大。 高盛續稱,中國股票估值重評或受全球互惠基金對中國股票配置已接近歷史低位,強勁互聯互通資金流入,持續市場開放及改革動力所觸發;戰略資產配置或由規模60萬億美元的房地產市場流向股市,外資持股人僅及5%。整體而言,上述因素支持高盛重新上調離岸中國股票評級至「增持」,反映對A股持續樂觀看法,以及AH股市場中雙位數(料介乎約13%至17%)潛在上行。 該行料明年MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數總回報分別16%及13%,屆明年底,MSCI中國指數目標105(現價計潛在回報16%),滬深300指數目標5,500點。明年MSCI中國指數及滬深300指數每股盈利增長料7%,後年料各加快至增12%。高盛料明年南向及北向資金流入各750億美元。 在地區而言,該行籲「增持」中國A股及離岸市場股票,以及新加坡、印尼及臺灣地區股票;建議「減持」澳洲及馬來西亞股票。 另按中國行業劃分,高盛上調汽車及半導體板塊評級至「增持」,另籲「增持」耐用消費品、傳媒及零售;下調銀行及原材料評級至「減持」,另維持予房地產及電訊板塊「減持」看法。 高盛認爲,明年投資主題涵蓋「共同富裕」倡議,互聯網企業盈利增長,以及價值增長(修復)。主要風險包括房地產市場、信貸、美國加息、中美關係緊張,以及通脹/滯脹。
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