中信證券:美股市場拐點將現,明年預計呈現結構性行情
來源:中信證券研究
中信證券研究指出,繼今年3季度美股盈利增速拐點出現,預計taper也將導致美股估值於明年上半年逐步收窄。展望2022年,美國經濟增速逐步回落的背景下,民主黨提出的加稅法案預計仍將對明年美股的盈利增速造成2.7ppts的衝擊,標普500的EPS增速預計將從今年的44.6%大幅放緩至8.4%。而美聯儲擴表的結束疊加美國國債發行的正常化或導致無風險利率超預期反彈,進一步壓制估值,我們判斷標普500動態PE也將從當前21.4倍的高位逐步向2015年以來18倍的歷史均值迴歸。在盈利增速和流動性投放都將階梯型回落的環境下,美股市場拐點將現,明年預計呈現結構性行情,上半年“再通脹”交易延續,但下半年科技/成長風格佔優。
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