《季績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)第三季純利跌近5% 受投資收益下滑拖累
港交所(00388.HK)將於下週三(27日)公佈截至今年9月底止第三季業績,由於上季環球資本市場表現欠佳,市場估計集團旗下投資收益淨額將按年顯着下滑,本網綜合5間券商預測,港交所純利料介乎28億至33.6億元,按年減少16.3%至增加0.4%;中位數爲31.86億元,按年減少4.8%。
綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季收入料介乎50.87億至54.7億元,按年減少4.2%至增加3%。中位數53.69億元,按年增加1.1%。就公司推出MSCI A50互聯指數期貨產品,投資者將關注管理層就業務拓展計劃及進展。
【料投資收入遜 累第三季業績】
摩根士丹利指,港交所第三季旗下港股日均成交額1,650億元按季升9%(按年升18%),估計滬、深港通成交進一步增長,北向及南向交易日均成交分別按年升29%及55%,預期交易費用收益按年升11%。但淨投資收入將顯着影響季度盈利,估季度淨投資收入1.67億元按季減少53%(按年跌74%),且因全球股市指數第三季回落,估算港交所季內外部基金收入按季跌89%,內部企業基金及槓桿清算基金回報則維持溫和,受短期指標利率下跌影響。該行預計港交所第三季純利按年跌11%至29.92億元,料收入按年跌4%至50.87億元。
中金預計港交所今年第三季純利按年跌4.8%至31.86億元,收入按年跌1%至52.72億元。剔除投資收益後主營業收入按年升10%至51億元,主要受日均成交量上升帶動。中金料港股今年第三季日均成交額按年升17%(按季升9%)至1,653億元,其中南下日均按成額按年升55%(按季升20%)至425億元(佔港股比重12.8%%),北上日均按成額按年升19%(按季升38%)至1,397億元(佔A股比重5.4%),料港交所今年第三季投資收入按年下滑74%。受市場波動及行業監管影響,該行指港交所第三季成IPO共27家(按年跌32.5%及按季升93%),融資額按年跌逾39%。
【觀監管趨勢 留意IPO影響】
美銀證券預計港交所第三季純利按年跌16%至28億元,按季大致持平。該行亦預期因應市場疲弱,港交所的投資收入將減少。該行亦指,在資金持續流向A股市場下,相信中國A50衍生產品成交量長遠將會增加,投資者亦需要時間從其他市場轉移倉位,部分投資者亦觀望產品流動性。
另外,美銀證券預期中國年底將公佈收緊企業在境外上市的正式規定,港交所會否被全面或部分地豁免於新規定,將影響明年上市公司數量。港交所目前欠缺輪候上市個案,受監管不確定性影響,近期科技股下跌及欠缺科技股上市,亦對港股成交構成壓力。
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本網綜合5間券商預測,港交所2021年第三季純利料介乎28億至33.6億元,較2020年第三季純利33.47億元,按年下跌16.3%至上升0.4%;中位數爲31.86億元,按年下跌4.8%。
券商│今年第三季純利預測│按年變幅
中信建投│33.6億元│+0.4%
摩根大通│32.87億元│-1.8%
中金│31.86億元│-4.8%
摩根士丹利│29.92億元│-10.6%
美銀證券│28億元│-16.3%
按港交所2020年第三季純利33.47億元計算
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綜合4間券商預測,港交所2021年第三季收入及其他收益料介乎50.87億至54.7億元,較2020年第三季53.09億元,按年下跌4.2%至上升3%;中位數53.69億元,按年上升1.1%。
券商│今年第三季收入及其他收益預測│按年變幅
中信建投│54.7億元│+3%
摩根大通│54.66億元│+3%
中金│52.72億元│-0.7%
摩根士丹利│50.87億元│-4.2%
按港交所2020年第三季收入及其他收益53.09億元計算
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