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《大行報告》花旗:憂慮樓價可能見頂及政策風險 維持對地產股謹慎看法
花旗發表研究報告,指昨日(6日)港府公佈新一份《施政報告》提及房屋政策仍是香港重要的議題,但當中的政策亦符合市場預期,沒有令人驚喜。花旗認爲,房屋問題,特別是低收入家庭,將會是下一任特首續面對的核心問題。 該行指,對報告中提到的政策看法中性,認爲發展商股價短期或上升,但同時仍維持樓市於第三季見頂的看法,在立法會和行政長官選舉後,政府潛在強硬立場,或致潛在政策風險進一步升溫。花旗維持對發展商審慎看法,預期零售收租股面對最小政策風險,而且在通關後有上行潛力,首選九龍倉置業(01997.HK)、領展(00823.HK)及恆隆地產(00101.HK)。 該行料至明年6月底前,樓價有7%至10%的潛在下行,主因今年2至7月樓市成交十分活躍,預先消耗了未來需求。當成交減慢後,移民潮帶來的負面影響將浮面。股市調整、政策風險憂慮,以及潛在量寬「收水」亦壓抑置業情緒。以中原城市領先指數(CCL)計,自2003年以來,香港樓價累計六次破頂,如果在CCL高峯沽售恆生地產股指數,七個月平均回報約25%。該行料本港樓價已於8月見頂,事隔兩個月,現時恆生地產股指數回落4%,理論上,該行料地產股股價將進一步調整。
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