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《大行報告》摩通下調民行(01988.HK)目標價至2.85元 評級「減持」
摩根大通發表報告,料民生銀行(01988.HK)股價會繼續跑輸同行,預料民行會繼續對恆大(03333.HK)敞口降級至不良貸款,令盈利進一步受壓,短期來說,市場會繼續反映更廣泛的房地產商債務違約風險。摩通說,由於民生銀行的內房債務佔比最多,普通股權一級資本比率最低,盈利風險高過同行,因此將民生銀行H股目標價削減18.6%,由3.5元降至2.85元,維持「減持」評級。 在基本情境下,該行料恆大溢出風險可受限,不良貸款率料明年逐漸下降。報告將民生銀行2021至2023年各年盈測分別降20.2%、13.4%及7.7%,以反映恆大相關風險;又指民生銀行在去年第四季開始肅清資產負債表,參考平安銀行(000001.SZ)轉型經驗,預料過程需要兩年時間,若過程完成得比預期快,在基本情境下,股價轉勢時間可能會來得更快。
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