《大行報告》野村下調美團(03690.HK)目標價至285元 料第三季增長或會放慢
野村發表報告表示,調整了對美團(03690.HK)2021至2022年收入及淨利估算,以反映新業務虧損減少,但將2021及22年外賣快遞經營利潤率預測解1.5及2個百分點,以反映疫情帶來的影響及抽成升幅減慢,維持「買入」評級,下調目標價,由346港元降至285港元。
該行指,美團今年第二季業績表現好過市場及該行預期,而三項業務表現均勝預期,不過第三季水災及疫情將影響到公司旗下外賣快遞及到店業務,加上基數亦將影響其餘兩項業務的增長。該行估計第三季外賣快遞收入將增28%,並料相關經營利潤將跌70個基點至3%,而每單利潤將為0.2元人民幣(下同),按年跌18%。
而在到店方面,該行估計美團第三季收入將升32%(對比第二季按年增長89%),而經營利潤將跌3個百分點至40%。至於公司社區團購業務日均訂單量次季按季增長30%,而相關業務虧損68億元,不過第三季規模增長或會放慢,主要因為針對行業推廣的監管收緊,估計第三季社區團購業務虧損將增至72億元。
管理層指出公司明年初起為所有騎手購買商業工傷保險,估計將令每張訂單派送成本增加0.05元,而在社保方面,監管機構仍未公布何時及如何實施,公司相信將在保障騎手利益及平台可持續、健康增長上有好的平衡,該行亦料政府將重視平台創造的就業職位。公司指出假如需承擔全部騎手社保的成本,估計將令每張訂單成本增加0.5元,低於該行估算的每單成本增加0.8-1元,相信美團可將相關成本轉嫁一部分予客戶。
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