《大行報告》匯豐研究下調國壽(02628.HK)目標價至14.5元 評級「持有」
匯豐研究發表的研究報告指,中國人壽(02628.HK)上半年新業務價值、初年保費及新業務利潤跌勢均符預期,而經紀數目持續下降。期內受惠投資回報、折扣比率調整及稅率下降等,盈利表現好過預期,維持「持有」評級,目標價由14.6元輕微降至14.5元,
該行指出上半年國壽新業務價值為299億元人民幣(下同),按年跌19%,而初年保費則跌14.2%,更重要的是支付年期逾十年的初年保費跌26.7%。期內新業務利潤跌至36.6%,而經紀利潤跌2.2個百分點,經紀數目由首季的128萬人降至115萬人,不過高效經紀數目維持穩定。期內盈利表現強勁,淨利410億元,按年升34.2%,主要受惠投資回報等;而淨投資收益率升至4.33%,整體投資回報則升至5.69%。
管理層在分析員會議上沒有提供下半年新業務價值指引,雖然具重大長遠潛力,不同保險需求仍受限,料經紀人數下半年仍然受壓,管理層將聚焦於政府支持的健康險,並參與商業養老保險的先導計劃等。
該行下調對國壽2021至2023年新業務價值預測8%至12%,惟上調今年盈測16%,對明後兩年盈測輕微調整。
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