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《大行報告》高盛降美團(03690.HK)目標價至312元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 08-23 15:25
高盛發表的研究報告指,美團(03690.HK)將於8月30日公布次季業績,公司估算次季收入將為421億元人民幣(下同),按年升70%,而經調整EBIT虧損則料39億元,較首季收窄。總體而言該行認為公司次季業績穩健,在核心外賣送遞及到店服務方面維持領導地位,新業務虧損則為90億元左右,較之前預測有所收窄,主要因為在監管環境下公司於美團優選方面未有進取地提供用戶補貼。該行認為市場應關注三大方面,其中包括網約車業務在新業務中焦點增加、監管環境,以及到店、酒店和旅遊業務增長疲弱等。 在外賣快遞方面,該行料次季表現符預期,相信訂單量將按年增54%,而同業餓了麼則按年升50%,期內收入料按年升54%,而阿里的本地消費者服務增長則料23%,估計每張訂單經調整EBIT為0.5元,主要因為騎手成本較低。不過料每張訂單EBIT於下半年將降低,主要考慮到季節性因素及騎手成本增加等。長遠而言該行相信隨著社保覆蓋落實,料至明年末季每張訂單騎手成本將較去年末季升1.3元。 高盛料美團到店、酒店及旅遊業務次季表現符預期,不過第三季或現下行風險,主要因為疫情相關限制等,估計第二季到店及旅遊收入將為66億元,按年升88%,而酒店收入則為19億元,按年增87%。 該行將美團2021至2023年收入預測分別降1%、維持不變及升3%,並將按非通用會計準則計算的EBIT預測降至虧損210億元、虧損50億元及賺310億元,意味扭虧時間有所延遲,主要因為騎手成本上升、網約車業務投資較大等,維持「買入」評級,目標價由364港元降至312港元。
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