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國君策略:地產板塊進入短期博弈,中長期價值仍沒有進行定價

來源:國君策略

定義不以房地產作爲短期刺激經濟的工具後,目前的經濟下行到重啓刺激就不會一蹴而就。當前貨幣政策和財政政策都要相對於此前更加積極,對房地產的寬鬆預期自然較此前有明顯增加,按照歷史經驗,一旦經濟有下行壓力,貨幣政策的放鬆確實會直接體現到房地產企業的報表擴張當中。在相關可觀測指標中,可以到房企融資大幅度寬鬆、土地市場量價齊升、樓市成交逐步見底,甚至部分城市開始放鬆購房條件。那麼以目前的情況來看,還暫未看到任何鬆動的現象,中小房企發債利率較高,百城土地供給面積在7月份再次同比減少21%、成交減少50%,克而瑞披露百強房企權益銷售金額同比增速回落,以上現象均未顯示出調控有反轉跡象。 

逆向思維下,對房地產的刺激之前,還需要經歷其他對衝工具無效、且不降低對經濟增長容忍度這兩個步驟。在直接融資時代,仍然更有效的資金分配方式,使得邊際效益最大的企業能夠進行擴產,以對衝經濟的下行,儘管,相比於間接融資,直接融資在一定時間內規劃大額開支方面有較多限制。同時,經濟增長容忍度依然值得考量,給定增長目標下,最容易實現的方式即拉動投資,而這就需要地產這樣的大額開支,因此,如果不降低經濟增長容忍度,則地產重啓刺激的概率纔會增加。

當前地產板塊的表現,已經從此前的單邊下行,開始進入到短期博弈當中,中長期價值仍然沒有進行定價。地產板塊的估值,按照未來現金流貼現來看,對於遠期價值的評判都爲負,也即,將當前的盈利進行再投資時,會出現大額虧損、甚至無法持續經營。這一現象不僅僅在於部分高槓杆率的房企上有體現,而是對幾乎所有以開發爲主營業務的房企上。在經歷2021年上半年地價大幅度上行後,板塊呈現出明顯的反饋,也即遠期盈利能力大幅度下降,而在當前經濟面臨下行壓力時,開始進入到短期博弈當中。我們認爲,政策對房地產行業的遠期定位很明確,房住不炒是大前提,因此,更應該挖掘中長期價值。推薦港股中的中國金茂、融創中國,受益旭輝控股集團,A股標的推薦中南建設、萬科A、保利地產、金地集團、招商蛇口等,受益我愛我家,同時推薦物業板塊,受益招商積餘、碧桂園服務,推薦中海物業、寶龍商業。

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