中金 | 港股:市場盤整消化政策不確定性,長期和短期均存在一定機會
來源:中金點睛
在此前一週大幅調整後,海外中資股市場上週在低位企穩。包括材料、汽車和電信在內多數板塊上週紛紛上漲,這與我們在上週提出的市場可能逐步觸底反彈並進入佈局區的判斷基本一致。

不過,政策不確定性下成長板塊內部依然出現較大分化。半導體等硬件板塊上週吸引了大量的南向資金流入,而遊戲、醫療保健以及直播等相關標的繼續承壓,主要是受到監管政策擔憂的影響。
具體來看,在媒體報道電子遊戲對中國青少年帶來相對負面影響後,包括騰訊和網易在內的電子遊戲標的在上週初普遍遭遇大幅拋售。雖然監管不確定性仍將存在,但是幾個因素顯示市場可能逐步進入「佈局區」:
1)市場估值已經計入較多的悲觀情緒,目前估值明顯低於歷史均值;
2)市場情緒技術指標出現極端超賣信號;
3)海外資金沒有出現市場所擔憂的大幅流出;
4)政策方面,騰訊和網易在防範未成年人網絡成癮上已經做出了行業內相對領先的舉措,且一直在推動國內遊戲行業的健康發展。我們認爲短期不確定性仍可能會帶來擾動,但對長線投資者來說市場的吸引力也正在凸顯。


投資建議上,考慮到近期市場已經遭遇拋售,我們仍認爲長期和短期均存在一定機會。
短期來看,由於近期過度拋售,估值定價明顯具有吸引力的板塊將出現逢低買進機會,投資者有望從中受益。科技板塊部分龍頭個股估值已經降至歷史區間的底部。
長期來看,我們認爲中國產業和消費升級趨勢將保持不變,兩大趨勢中的核心板塊,如電動汽車產業鏈、新能源、先進製造及消費和醫療保健兩大板塊中龍頭企業,將存在諸多長期機會。
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