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《大行報告》瑞銀下調快手(01024.HK)目標價至115元 評級「買入」
阿思達克 08-09 11:08
瑞銀發表的研究報告指,維持對快手(01024.HK)「買入」評級,目標價由400元大幅降至115元,以反映其用戶趨勢的短期壓力,以及直播收入轉弱、電商變現減慢及近期經營開支提升等,料今年日活躍用戶將按年升14.7%至3.03億人,而次季日活躍用戶則會按季跌1%。該行相信現時已反映公司相對「抖音」表現較弱,不過快手在內容差異化及社交方面表現強,相信有助維持用戶參與度,維持對其廣告及電商變現潛力看法正面,加上考慮其海外發展,相信將為下半年帶來潛在上行。惟近期內地監管機構對線上娛樂取態轉趨負面,加上就個人數據方面的討論持續,相信假如有新規推出,將為公司直播及廣告業務帶來風險。 該行估計公司今年次季及全年收入將分別按年升158%及100%,表現維持強勁,不過對其直播收入及經營利潤率表現則較審慎,面對競爭公司在營銷及研發開支上有所提升,但瑞銀對其電商商品交易額(GMV)增長看法正面,但預期提成率將有所下降,主要因為管理層短期聚焦於GMV增長而非收入增長,估計次季其毛利率將由首季的41%升至43%,主要受惠收入組合轉變,但次季海外投資增加,料營銷及員工成本均有所提升,拖累全年虧損擴大。
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