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《大行報告》高盛下調新東方(09901.HK)評級至「中性」 大降新東方及新東方在線(01797.HK)目標價
就內地印發《關於進一步減輕義務教育階段學生作業負擔和校外培訓負擔的意見》,高盛發表報告表示,新政策要求K-12後學科輔導機構強制轉換爲非營利機構、第二是限制外資參與,包括併購、委託經營、特許經營等,以及 所有規則的應用(包括假期和週末課後輔導(AST)禁令),不僅適用於爲中小學生提供服務的課後輔導機構(G1-9),也適用於爲高中生提供服務的課後輔導機構(G10-12)。

該行估計,內地相關課後輔導(AST)的可擴大潛在市場範圍(Total Addressble Market,TAM)規模,由原來2020年的1,000億美元,至2025年會降至240億美元。而該行料2021年及2022年中國相關課後輔導(AST)的可擴大潛在市場範圍各爲820億美元及240億美元

隨着週末、夏季/冬季假期的官方課後輔導禁令(據該行估計佔相關總收入75%至80%),這引發了該行對內地K-12後的2021年至2023年相關行業收入預測削減70%至90%,雖然可能會出現潛在重組,但料運營虧損會較之前的預期相比大幅增加。

該行下調對新東方(09901.HK)H股評級由「買入」降至「中性」,將目標價由110港元大降至28港元;該行維持對新東方在線(01797.HK)「沽售」評級,大降目標價由10.5港元降至3.9港元。而該行亦下調好未來(TAL.US)評級由「買入」降至「中性」,將目標價由53美元大降至5.6美元。

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