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《大行報告》大摩料內房股中期業績弱 核心盈利平均升3.2% 憂去槓桿及毛利率壓力
摩根士丹利發表的研究報告指,料內房上半年核心盈利增長平均僅3.2%,而毛利率亦呈跌勢,憂慮開發商去槓桿將令毛利率繼續受壓。該行估計上半年內房收入將平均升15.1%,而毛利率中位數則跌至24.5%,而去年上半年及去年全年則分別爲29.9%及26.9%。在派息方面,該行料中期每股派息將有穩定增長或派息比率穩定,而在淨負債方面,大摩料中位數將降至60%,而去年6月底及去年12月底分別爲70%及65%。

該行估計所覆蓋的內房中只有6家核心盈利增長高於10%,其中包括華潤置地(01109.HK)、世茂集團(00813.HK)料毛利率穩定,而龍湖集團(00960.HK)、新城發展(01030.HK)、雅居樂集團(03383.HK)及中駿集團控股(01966.HK)則毛利率則微跌。

該行預期表現較弱的包括中國奧園(03883.HK)、富力地產(02777.HK)、中國金茂(00817.HK)及禹洲集團(01628.HK),料核心盈利將現跌勢,而萬科企業(02202.HK)、融創中國(01918.HK)及遠洋集團(03377.HK)核心盈利則料無增長。

另外該行料中國海外發展(00688.HK)核心盈利或有高單位數增長,而碧桂園(02007.HK)、旭輝控股集團(00884.HK)、合景泰富集團(01813.HK)、龍光集團(03380.HK)、時代中國(01233.HK)及深圳控股(00604.HK)核心盈利則料有低單位數增長。

大摩認爲行業仍有風險,一方面去槓桿令投資者憂慮增加,部分該行無覆蓋的開發商於2020至2021年均面對流動性問題,另一方面估計在土地拍賣氣氛轉淡前毛利率仍未見底,第三季土地拍賣值得關注。大摩認爲雖然估值已在底部,但短期催化劑缺乏,展望下半年要留意土地市場有沒有冷卻以及流動性是否有改善,相信具盈利可見性的有質素內房股將跑贏,首選潤地及龍湖。

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