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盈選報告 | 下半年貨幣寬鬆窗口打開,關注銀行、創新藥板塊

市場策略

▍任澤平對最近降準分享道:

未來半年一年,貨幣寬鬆的窗口已經打開了。對未來的股市、債市、資本市場,不應該悲觀。
 
今年下半年明年上半年中國經濟將逐季放緩,經濟下行的壓力會逐漸加大。對這個事情,公共政策要有充分的估計。
 
總的來說,這次降準對經濟是利好的。但是,它改變的是經濟的斜率,不改變方向。

▍中金對鮑威爾國會半年度貨幣政策聽證會點評:

1.關於通脹,承認短期價格壓力,但依然認爲短期高通脹是受基數和部分供給瓶頸所致,後續有望回落。

2.關於貨幣政策,依然不急於退出,並表示將在正式宣佈政策變化前提前給出信號。

廣發證券認爲流動性環境對港股依然適宜,風險溢價已經不低,分母端壓力有所減輕。美債收益率在通脹預期回落的影響下,上行空間有限,加上市場風險溢價略有修復,“2月行情”預計也不會復刻。南下資金對港股是“越跌越買”的配置型思路,高股息和優質稀缺標的對其仍有吸引力。

熱點機會

▍創新藥板塊:

國泰君安近日發佈研報稱,醫藥創新長期高景氣,其中CRO/CDMO巨頭大多以海外收入爲主,繼續受益於全球生物醫藥創新投入高景氣和技術迭代,也將繼續受益於本土創新藥崛起。近期市場波動或更多來自對前期漲幅較大的強勢板塊的估值消化,產業趨勢未變。推薦泰格醫藥、藥明生物、藥明康德、石藥集團等

▍銀行板塊:

摩根大通近日發表報告表示,從人民銀行近日召開記者會發言顯示對內銀行業正面,人行其中一個關鍵信息是貨幣政策沒不會重大轉變,並重申宏觀經濟增長穩中向好,這略緩解了該行對內地宏觀增長和今年下半年貸款利率下調的擔憂。該行指,人行其他積極信息包括貸款結構改善、料降費對內銀的影響將低於預期。而對內銀的主要負面影響是貸款利率下降,導致淨息差的下行風險。摩通表示,內地貸款利率下降是壓低內銀淨息差的關鍵因素,雖然內銀已明言2021年淨息差將從2020年的水平下降。零售貸款利率可能比企業貸款利率更具彈性,料此對零售業務佔比較高的內銀如招行及平安銀行有利。

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