盈選報告 | 抓住新國潮的投資機會，關注汽車經銷商、石油板塊
市場策略
▍任澤平在最近線上交流中分享道：
“對於投資者而言，大家一定要抓住新國潮現象所帶來的投資機會，這個時代已經來了。”
“往後面看一個季度，中國的貨幣政策不會出現大轉向，也不會跟隨美聯儲加息。”
“不論是中國的“雙碳”，還是未來的金融支持“雙碳”，都將利好新能源汽車、光伏、節能減排、氫能這些行業，它們代表未來。”
“貨幣政策目前保持中性穩健，但是在下半年的某一個時點，大家對貨幣政策收緊的預期或者說焦慮和擔憂可能會得到緩解。”
▍平安證券研報指出，在美聯儲流動性盛宴進入下半場，且Taper信號釋放臨近的背景下，港股市場應更爲關注景氣。未來一段時間，偏低估值的高景氣領域的表現將顯著強於高估值板塊。
由於能源及部分商品、交運與文體娛樂等消費的高景氣度大概率可以延續，所以短期能源板塊、交運、紡服及文體娛樂消費可以加大關注度。
而港股科技龍頭近期的低迷可能延續較長時間，這與盈利預期低迷和監管趨嚴有關，建議在港股科技板塊可以逢低吸納，着眼長期。
▍興業證券張憶東表示，7月在平淡中尋找新奇，指數大起大伏的概率不大，結構性行情隨着性價比的變化而不斷此起彼伏。
至少到7月下旬政治局會議之前，港股和A股市場的風險偏好整體有望維持正面，但是，行情還是會受到美國政治博弈的變數、全球疫情的變數以及中國化解存量風險引發的變數等陸續衝擊，最終有驚無險。
熱點機會
▍汽車經銷商板塊：
中金髮表報告表示，據多間汽車製造商數據顯示，6月份汽車銷量理想，故該行預計下半年產量銷售均強勁，估計產銷兩旺。
該行指，內地乘用車仍然受到芯片供應緊張及原材料價格上漲的影響，今年第二季或會是最差的季度，而下半年進入增加庫存階段，料產銷有望逐步回升，因此看好短期受惠於芯片短缺、折扣下降及利潤增加的經銷商股份，包括中升(00881.HK)及永達汽車(03669.HK)。
▍石油板塊：
消息面上，OPEC+取消了原定本週一舉行的產油政策會議，阿聯酋要求上調該國減產時依據的原油基線，阿聯酋同沙特等主要產油國存在難以調和的分歧，國際原油價格盤中繼續攀升。
銀河證券表示，在油價迴歸背景下，石油加工行業存在業績週期改善的預期，看好進行低成本業務佈局實施規模擴張的頭部企業。
太平洋證券表示，油價持續上升，看好油服設備表現。在國家能源安全戰略推動下，加大勘探開發力度依然是未來行業的主基調，國內對於油服需求保持旺盛。
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