長城汽車(601633):5月缺芯影響猶存 表現仍強於行業
公司整體5 月單月銷量同比增長6.18%,表現優於行業公司發佈5 月產銷快報,長城汽車整體5 月實現銷量8.70 萬輛,同比增長6.18%;1-5 月累計銷量51.75 萬輛,同比增長65.32%。分品牌看,哈弗5 月銷售5.38 萬輛,同比+3.73%,累計銷售33.16萬輛,同比+54.07%;WEY 品牌5 月銷售3,011 輛,同比減少39.96%,累計銷售3.26 萬輛,同比+55.34%;長城皮卡5 月銷售2.04 萬輛,同比減少9.43%,累計銷售10 萬輛,同比+44.57%;歐拉品牌5 月銷售3,597 輛,同比增加54.18%,累計銷售4.18萬輛,同比增長513.97%;另外,坦克品牌自2021 年4 月脱離WEY 獨立運營後,5 月銷量6,090 輛;4-5 月累計銷量1.16 輛,持續爬坡。5 月公司銷量環比季節性下滑,總體表現優於行業。芯片電池短缺壓制新車產能爬坡,看好下半年釋放銷量彈性缺芯、缺電池影響仍未退散:歐拉車型作為純電車型,暨3 月達到1.3 萬輛銷量頂峯後,連續兩個月銷量大幅下挫,長期看隨着長城與寧德時代簽署10 年期合作框架協議,歐拉銷量預計將轉好;新車型替換方面,WEY 品牌VV 系列進入末期,銷量承壓明顯,後續依託咖啡智能化平台打造的摩卡、拿鐵、瑪奇朵等新車型將陸續在下半年加速開啟替換週期。另外,考慮到公司股權激勵計劃給予2021 年149 萬輛銷量目標,我們認為,銷量放緩屬短期調整,長期銷量仍看好。投資建議:產品力疊加渠道力助推,上調至“買入”評級自主品牌向上的大背景下,公司推出坦克、檸檬以及咖啡智能三大高端模塊化,主抓產品力提升;另外,歐拉、長城炮、坦克等差異化產品分別鎖定各類細分客羣,體現公司精準的市場需求把控能力。持續看好公司強勢產品週期,屬於一線自主崛起核心品種。我們預計公司2021-2023 年歸母淨利潤分別為90/123/149 億,EPS 分別為0.98/1.34/1.62 元,上調至“買入”評級。風險提示:電池、芯片短缺影響,新車型替換速度不及預期等。
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