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李寧(2331.HK):盈利預喜 大超預期
格隆匯 06-28 00:01
盈利預喜,大幅超出華泰及管理層預期…李寧6 月25 日發佈盈利預喜,預計1H21 營收同比增長超60%,淨利潤不低於人民幣18 億元,表明淨利潤同比增長約163%,淨利潤率達18.2%(同比擴張約 7.1 個百分點)。這一預喜大幅超出管理層/華泰對 2021 年營收同比增速(達20-30%區間中段/38%)及淨利潤率(同比擴張 100 /120 個基點)的預期,我們認為主因公司經營槓桿強勢提升。我們預計李寧將持續受益於其龍頭國貨品牌的地位,從而在長期獲得可持續的收入增長和利潤率擴張。我們預測李寧 2021-23 的基本 EPS 為人民幣 1.34 / 1.71 / 2.15元,並將基於DCF 估值法的目標價上調 36%至 95.0 港幣。維持“買入”。…主因品牌形象增強以及經營槓桿改善我們認為 1H21 的淨利潤率擴張好於預期主要原因在於:1) 新疆棉事件後國貨品牌在中國消費者中暢銷度不斷提高,李寧的品牌形象也得到了提升。這幫助李寧在節省營銷推廣費用的同時仍取得收入增長; 2)在強勁的終端需求推動下,零售折扣水平持續改善。我們預計李寧零售折扣的復甦趨勢與安踏品牌相近,後者的零售折扣已在 2Q21 恢復至品牌歷史最佳水平。在我們看來,這有助於提高李寧直營和線上渠道的毛利率; 3) 在收入快速增長的推動下,經營槓桿大幅提升。我們預計2021-2023 年淨利潤年複合增長率達到46%我們將 2021/2022/2023 年預測收入上調 3.5/1.8/1.1% 至人民幣207/249/300 億元,以反映公司在2Q21 強勁的收入增長勢頭。我們將2021/2022/2023 年預測淨利潤上調 27.5/23.3/20.2%至人民幣33/42/53億元,對應淨利潤率為 15.9/16.8/17.8%,主要考慮到李寧未來經營槓桿率將逐步向好。2021-2023 年預測淨利潤的年複合增長率為46%。上調目標價至95.00 港幣;維持“買入”我們將基於DCF 的目標價上調 36%至 95.0 港幣,主因盈利預測更新。我們假設WACC 為 10.5%,永續增長率為 3.0%。李寧當前股價對應45.9 倍12 個月遠期PE,對應 PEG 為 1.0。考慮到其強勁的收入增長勢頭和利潤率擴張趨勢,我們認為該估值具有吸引力。維持“買入”。風險提示:1)時尚單品消費者反響不佳;2)庫存管理低效;3)經營費用高於我們預期;4)疫情反覆。
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