新洋豐(000902):複合肥龍頭 多策略並舉提高市佔率
40 年沉澱的地位,磷複肥龍頭持續鋭意進取。新洋豐前身為1982 年成立的石橋驛磷肥廠,經過40 年的發展,形成了800 萬噸磷複肥生產能力和320 萬噸低品位磷礦洗選能力,配套生產硫酸280 萬噸/年、180 萬噸磷酸一銨、合成氨15 萬噸/年、硝酸15 萬噸/年的產業鏈配套,在磷、鉀兩種稀缺營養元素中形成了比較優勢。往後,公司積極落實宜都搬遷項目、合成氨改造項目和新型複合肥項目,並積極下沉渠道、深度營銷,保持鋭意進取的態勢。雙碳政策約束供應,複合肥景氣度長線復甦。複合肥需求端同時受到農產品價格恢復性上漲和複合化率的驅動,保持穩定低速增長。在供應端,由於環境政策收緊導致千萬噸級的供應退出,供需格局明顯優化,從而形成了景氣度復甦的趨勢。在原料端,氮磷鉀中,氮肥因為長期的低景氣度導致供應被動去除,磷肥則因為三磷整治加速出清,鉀肥國內資源稟賦有限,三大營養元素均跟隨下游進行景氣度修復,其中磷肥、鉀肥相對氮肥表現出更大彈性,側面驗證其更好的供應格局。往後看,磷礦供應端在“有序開發”的指導下預計有所收縮,需求端收到飼料級磷酸氫鈣、磷酸一銨等產品拉動有所恢復,預計價格會緩慢上漲;而磷酸一銨雖然相對二銨更加分散,但由於前期政策的因素,很多企業雖然有生產指標卻無有效供應,也形成了較為明顯的價格彈性。在農產品庫銷比已經得到有效消化的當下,預計價格持續改善,複合肥產業鏈有望實現景氣度的長線復甦。一體化為依託,多策略並舉提高市佔率。作為磷複肥的龍頭企業,公司氮源配套有15 萬噸合成氨,鉀源享有30 萬噸進口權,磷源集團層面坐擁300 萬噸磷礦,一體化的優勢使得公司的毛利率和ROIC 都享有明顯的超額收益。往後發展,公司主要執行三條策略:1)優化產品結構,積極提高新型複合肥佔比。截止2020 年,公司新型複合出貨量佔比為20%,產能佔比約為19%,公司在建的60 萬噸複合肥在產品分類上都屬於新型產品,預計2021 年,公司新型複合肥產能佔比將進一步提高至26%;2)積極介入下游,深度營銷提升品牌形象。公司自2018 年組建技術服務部門,目前已經完成了237 塊高標準示範田基地,來示範新型肥料的效果以獲得客户的更加信賴;3)不斷下沉渠道,服務全球市場。在國內,公司已經覆蓋了全國87%的縣,基本完成了渠道的下沉;在國際上,公司的顆粒一銨、粉狀一銨、工業級一銨、二元複合肥、三元複合肥等產品出口,已經覆蓋五大洲近40 個國家和地區,形成了立足中國、服務全球的渠道能力。投資建議:按照我們的測算,公司2021-2023 年業績依次為12 億元、13 億元和14 億元,對應EPS 依次為0.94 元/股、1.02 元/股和1.10 元/股,公司過去5年PE(TTM)中樞約為20 倍,按照該估值公司2022 年可以對應20.40 元/股的目標價,首次覆蓋給予“強推”評級。風險提示:景氣度持續性不及預期,單肥價格上漲幅度超預期。
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