《大行报告》摩通升中铝、马钢及鞍钢H股目标价 4月铝材单位每吨毛利创新高
摩根大通发表研究报告,指在过去供给侧改革,铝是内地政府核心专注板块以解决供应过剩问题。在「供给侧改革2.0」至今,供应管理举措大都集中於钢。该行相信碳中和政策将加大对行业压力加快转型至氢能制铝生产,致未来产出增长放缓,支持其高企行业毛利率与钢相若。该行上调中铝(02600.HK)、马钢(00323.HK)及鞍钢(00347.HK)H股目标价,中铝由4.5元升至5.5元,马钢由3.7元升至4.9元,鞍钢由5.6元升至7.5元;评级均为「增持」。
报告称,内地4月铝材单位毛利升至约每吨4,400元人民币的历史高位。考虑去年下半年铝库存低企,今年春节补货周期後进一步下跌,自去年末季起终端需求增速较产出增速快。短期而言,该行看不到内地铝材产出有大幅增加的迹象。
摩通解释,与钢比较,铝带来的内地二氧化碳排放相对较小。去年内地铝行业排放4.5亿吨二氧化碳,占内地整体二氧化碳排放约5%,少於水泥及钢约15%至20%;较小碳排放意味铝是经济上可行的绿色替代。现时能源生产占铝行业绝大部分碳排放,及生产成本约30%;氢能制铝占现时内地铝生产约10%,所产生的碳排放相对大幅减少。该行称,以煤电生产的每吨铝释放13吨二氧化碳,而氢能制铝则每吨铝释放1.8吨二氧化碳。
报告称,碳中和政策将致铝产能增长放缓,料碳中和政策将限制钢产能於2021/2022年水平,由於转型向氢能制铝,铝生产料续增,但增幅放慢。该行料至年底铝产量按年升幅将由现时约10%放缓至少於5%。
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