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《大行报告》大和赖志文:本港缓慢复苏惟受制未能完全复关 旅游及社交距离限制或延续至年底
阿思达克 05-06 11:11
大和资本市场首席经济师赖志文发表报告指,本港最新GDP数据反映连续十八个月衰退告终,受惠低基数,首季实际GDP按年转升7.8%,远胜市场预期。经季调後,首季GDP按季升幅亦由前值0.5%大幅加快至5.3%。报告称,下一个问题是,增长动力可否在未来数季持续。

报告称,服务出口(旅游、运输、金融服务)持续受疫情余波冲击,首季按年续跌8.7%,去年同期跌36.6%。这受货品出口按年强劲增长30.6%所抵销,整体而言,私人消费首季回复至按年升1.6%,结束十八个月跌势。

与邻近地区比较,香港首季GDP明显跑赢南韩及新加坡,但主要由於香港较早受疫情打击带来的低基数,而星韩两地直至去年第二季才受疫情蹂躏。

赖氏称,首季标志着香港衰退结束。复苏正缓慢推展,但受到未能完全复关所重大限制。香港在5月下旬起与新加坡展开「航空旅游气泡」,冀开始漫长复关进程,提振旅游及零售行业。不过,报告称,这尝试充满不确定性,至今仅8.2%人口完成两剂疫苗接种,亚洲部分地区出现变种病毒。本地而言,数宗确诊个案涉及N501Y及B.1.167变种病毒株,科学家相信较原病毒株更具传染性,亦可能削弱疫苗对已接种人士的保护。

报告称,香港自去年3月起已爆发四波疫情,倘变种病毒引发新一波疫情,料现行隔离措施及社交距离措施将立即收紧。在这情况下,自去年第三季起的按季复苏或戛然而止。许多已经历十八个月衰退的企业或难以存活。该行相信许多旅游限制及社交距离措施或维持至今年底,限制了全面复苏的可能性。不过,考虑今年首季经济反弹,料该行全年经济增长2.5%的预测有相当上行空间。

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