一文了解券商於国寿(02628.HK)公布季绩後最新评级、目标价及观点
中国人寿(02628.HK)季绩公布後今早表现向好，现升2.3%，报16.04港元。花旗指国寿首季新业务价值虽按年下降13.2%，但仍优於该行原预期下跌20%，显示管理层加强银保及集团的销售渠道，以减轻所面临的压力。国寿公布今年首季根据中国企业会计之营业收入为3,734.58亿人民币，按年增长10.6%；净利润为285.89亿人民币按年升67.3%，符合公司早前发盈喜指引(估计首季纯利将按年增长55%至75%)。每股收益1.01元人民币。
国寿首季保费收入为3,238.92亿人民币，按年增长5.2%。在去年高基数基础上，新业务价值按年下降13.2%。退保率为0.38%，按年上升0.1个百分点。公司实现总投资收益651.12亿人民币，按年增长43.3%，总投资收益率为6.44%；净投资收益达413.95亿人民币，按年增长8.7%，净投资收益率为4.08%。
【首季盈利符预期 惟新业务价值弱】
高盛发表报告表示，国寿2021年第一季度净利润按年增长67%符合预期，监於其派息比率相对稳定，表明盈余和股息预测存在上行风险，指目前国寿提供股息回报5.5厘，估计每股股息有可能进一步上涨，将为股价带来刺激作用。在销售前景方面，管理层仍保持谨慎态度，因代理商人数减少，国寿於整个行业面临挑战。在去年高基数基础上，国寿新业务价值按年下降13.2%，并预期今年下半年新业务价值与同业增长差距将会缩小。该行予国寿投资评级「买入」，目标价维持23元不变。
摩根士丹利表示，国寿首季纯利年升67%，但新业务价值按年下降13.2%，属内险股表现最弱的其中一间公司，料其今年表现难延续去年趋势，维持对其「与大市同步」评级及目标价20元。
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本网最新综合7间券商其投资评级及目标价：
券商│投资评级│目标价(港元)
花旗│买入│27元
高盛│买入│23元
瑞信│跑赢大市│23元
野村│买入│22.86元
大和│买入│22元
摩根士丹利│与大市同步│20元
瑞银│买入│18.5元
券商│观点
花旗│首季纯利及新业务价值增长胜预期
高盛│首季纯利增长超预期，期待上半年新业务价值增长有所改善
瑞信│管理层变更可能带来战略和执行方面不确定性
野村│首季纯利增长强劲，但新业务价值按年增长放缓
大和│新业务价值表现放缓
摩根士丹利│首季纯利按年增67%符预期，新业务价值增长同业中表现最弱
瑞银│新业务价值基本符合预期，但新业务销售面临竞争压力
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