《大行报告》大摩料腾讯(00700.HK)首季非国际财务准则纯利按年升21% 降目标价至800元
摩根士丹利发表报告指,展望腾讯(00700.HK)首季收入达1,317亿人民币将年升22%(符合市场同业预期),估计其按非国际财务准则计算经营溢利按年升上17%至415.33亿人民币,料腾首季非国际财务准则纯利328.84亿人民币按年升21%(按季跌1%)、估计其首季纯利336.39亿人民币按年升16%(按季跌43%)。该行将其2021至2023年经营溢利预测降3-4%,以反映新游戏产品线及短期广告方面的阻碍。
该行维持对腾讯「增持」评级,目标价由820元降至800元,相当於2022年非国际财务准市盈率34倍,为过去五年区间水平的中间点。
该行将腾讯2021年收入预测降2%至5,820亿人民币,意味将按年增21%,主要因为游戏产品线的时间表可见性有限,加上短期广告行业亦面对阻碍,估计今年全年其毛利率将为44.7%,主要因为线上广告毛利率基数较高,加上新业务整合亦会摊薄毛利率表现。料全年经营溢利将按年升22%至1,770亿人民币。
在增值服务业务方面,大摩料公司今年首季相关收入将按年升17%至730亿人民币,而手游收入则按年升18%(按季升12%),对比2020年首季按年增长64%。广告业务收入方面,该行料相关业务首季收入将为214亿元按年增21%,其中社交广告升24%、媒体广告升5%,不过该行将全年广告收入预测降3%,以反映教育广告方面等影响。但该行料微信朋友圈自11月起逐步推出第五则广告,料有助缓和风险。(el/w) ~
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