《大行报告》中金:碳中和将重塑内地钢铁业新格局 重视龙头投资机会
中金发表报告表示,观察到国家发改委及工信部已多次强调2021年实现钢材产量压降,叠加钢铁重镇唐山在环保政策上大幅收紧以佐证,该行认为本轮钢价上涨幅度及持续性均有望超出上轮供改。
碳中和背景下,中金指内地钢铁行业中长期供需格局迎来重塑,盈利有望迎趋势性改善。钢铁行业作为工业部门最大的碳排放来源,碳减排责无旁贷。据钢铁行业碳达峰目标,该行认为钢铁行业要实现2025年达峰,2030年减排30%的目标,对钢铁产量的管控势在必行,行业供给中长期受限的确定性已进一步提升。
目前中国钢铁需求仍未见顶,中金认为有望保持稳中有升趋势,行业长期供给过剩的格局将迎来重塑,行业盈利有望得到趋势性的改善。优胜劣汰,行业加速走向集中,板块龙头强者恒强。在钢铁行业从粗放式发展向绿色低碳和高质量发展转型的过程中,该行认为中国将逐步建立以碳排放、污染物排放及能耗总量为依据的引导机制,行业将由纯粹的成本竞争转向综合实力的竞争,龙头钢企将凭借成本及绿色制造优势不断扩张规模,持续提升盈利能力。
该行重点推荐板材龙头宝钢(600019.SH),建议关注低估值板材标的鞍钢(00347.HK)、马钢(00323.HK)、华菱钢铁(000932.SZ)、新钢股份(600782.SH)及具备明显成本优势的长材龙头方大特钢(600507.SH)。
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