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《大行报告》瑞信下调阿里(09988.HK)目标价至304元 评级「跑赢大市」
阿思达克 04-09 09:58
瑞信发表报告指,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)股价已反映负面因素,加上估值不高,现时的股价具吸引力,而明确反垄断调查及经济处罚是短期股价催化剂,下调目标价由323港元至304港元,维持「跑赢大市」评级。

报告称,第四财季阿里巴巴CMR+佣金料按年增长37%,商品交易额(GMV)按年增长34%;在并合高鑫零售(06808.HK)及低基数下,总收入料按年增长56%,至1,788.4亿元人民币。当中,淘宝的服装和家具类交易额应该会表现出色,消费电子产品和快速消费品也会有所支持。其他内地零售商业收入,包括Freshippo、Sun-Art、天猫超市、考拉等预计将按年增长26%。云计算收入则有望保持按年健康增长50%。

报告提到,第四财季非通用会计准则EBITA利润率预计为13.9%,或按年下跌3个百分点。由於对淘宝交易、直播、杂货等新投入,核心经调整EBITA利润率可能继续下跌。而饿了麽加大用於吸引用户和改善消费者体验的投资,将导致核心商务新业务亏损扩大24%,至73亿元人民币。

不过,瑞信认为,阿里加大投资力度是扞卫市场份额的必要之举,并能利用自身流量、物流投资及商户连接优势,把握疫情後加速向线上消费转变的机会,因此下调阿里2021至2022财年息税及摊销前利润(EBITA)预测。

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