《大行报告》大和升思摩尔国际(06969.HK)评级至「买入」 目标价下调至64元
大和发表的研究报告指,内地或潜在监管电子烟消息出台後,思摩尔国际(06969.HK)股价一如预期下跌,现时难估算实际带来的影响,但相信最差的情况对公司2022年盈利影响约25%,虽然发生的可能性很低,但已反映在股价上,相信部分投资者将思摩尔与下游参与者、较受监管影响的雾芯科技(RLX.US)放在同一篮子内。该行认为长远而言行业内地发展虽受阻,但电子烟的渗透率将继续提升,估计公司将受惠品牌、研发能力及生产效率,将评级由「跑赢大市」升至「买入」,目标价则由90元降至64元,将公司2022年每股盈测降5.6%,以反映内地电子烟市场增长放慢。
该行认为市场两大忧虑包括电子烟价值链将受监管,以及加税将降低行业利润,现时市场相信加税不能避免,但估计将透过加价及成本管控等转嫁,另一方面大部分投资者亦同意,日後会有更多新的发牌条件,意味或需牌照才能开设零售店,相信将影响RELX及YOOZ等品牌的增长速度。在最差的情景下,相信电子烟市场将现「洗牌」,但即使新品牌亦依赖思摩尔作生产,认为市场对消息的反应与美国初次宣布收紧行业监管一样,而当时仅影响小型电子烟品牌,最终供应商仍是受益者,所以相信类似的情节将在中国重演。
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