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美联料短期供应难大增利楼价 5幅启德商业地转住宅可善用资源
阿思达克 02-24 16:04
新一份《财政预算案》公布,对土地的着墨不多,市场焦点放在5块将转作住宅用途的启德商业用地之上。美联测量师行董事林子彬指出,虽然改变土地用途仍有待城规会批准,但是落实後料有助纾缓整体未来紧绌的供应。事实上,市区土地储备已几近见底,未来可供兴建住宅的用地有限,相信房屋供应要达标有一定压力,因此市区地实属「一块都不能少」。加上早前有启德商业地皮流标,反映区内对商用物业的需求未至,相信转换用途可更有效善用土地资源。

林子彬预期,是次转作住宅用途的启德商业地中,其中3幅会於於跑道地段,部份享有维港景,属区内罕有的优质地皮,相信会受到发展商欢迎。

美联物业首席分析师刘嘉辉指出,预算案公布新财年卖地计划的住宅用地,加上铁路物业发展、私人发展和重建及市区重建局项目,预计下财年的潜在土地供应可供兴建约16,500个单位,比起本财年15,730个仅轻微增加约5%。

更重要的是,潜在土地供应不会於年内悉数售出。以过往十年平均售出率近七成计算,新财年卖地计划最终可提供约11,500个单位;即使以八成计算,最终亦是约13,000个单位左右,与本财年卖地计划12,900个单位相若。相信短期供应难大幅增加,对楼价有支持作用。

事实上,近年卖地计划发展商可吸纳的土地供应明显减少,未来落成量的预测亦可见一斑。今日公布的财政预算案中,估计未来五年(2021年至2025年)私人住宅单位每年平均落成量超过18,000个,较过去五年的平均数增加约5%。不过,若与去年财政预算案公布估计未来五年(2020年至2024年)平均每年落成量约为19,600个相比已见减少。若与近五年作比较,亦见下调趋势。若未来卖地供应持续低企,相信未来落成量将会进一步下跌。

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