緊信用!抱團散!殺估值!A股風格轉變,白酒蒸發4000億
春節前一路暴漲、春節後首個交易日就大挫近4%的白酒板塊,在本週繼續回調,連續3個交易中已累計回調超10%。
截至今日發稿,中證白酒指數跌近7.5%,創下中證白酒指數2020年7月16日至今的最大單日跌幅。整個白酒板塊總市值較上億交易日蒸發了4000億元有餘。

板塊內成分股方面,山西汾酒、酒鬼酒跌停,五糧液、瀘州老窖、洋河股份跌逾8%。

而白酒股的絕對中心——貴州茅台,全天震盪走低,一度跌超7%,最終收跌6.99%,亦是自去年7月16日以來的最大單日跌幅。

在橫跨春節假期的2月8日至19日(上週五)的5個交易日內,北上資金(滬股通)連續淨賣出貴州茅台,資金累計流出約30億元。而今日,貴州茅台再遭北上資金淨賣出近3億元。
除白酒板塊外,醫藥板塊以及前期的熱門抱團股如美的集團、中國中免、海天味業等今日也紛紛大跌。
可見,主流資金加速調倉是抱團板塊下跌的主要原因。而資金投資風格轉換背後的主要原因,一個是前期抱團股的暴漲已計入了較滿的預期,而近期並新的利好釋出,因此抱團股本身已經存在估值過高的現象;
另一個主要原因,自然是央行繼續收緊的貨幣政策。目前市場上的各類投資者對於宏觀流動性的敏感度都非常高,對流動性邊際轉緊的背景下對A股估值的下壓存在普遍的擔憂。
節後開市當天,央行便開展了2000億元中期借貸便利(MLF)操作,即在春節後逐步回籠現金;以及200億元逆回購操作,中標利率持平於2.2%。

與此同時,國債期貨在今年1月底破位持續走低,打破了債熊接近尾聲的市場預期。10年期國債期貨主力合約今日再跌0.06%。
在流動性收緊、市場上資金不足的情勢頗為明顯的情況下,前期暴漲以至於出現較大估值泡沫的板塊——白酒、醫藥,自然在殺估值時首當其衝。
相反,前期較冷的有色、化工股今日集體飆漲。有色金屬指數以超過7.5%的漲幅領漲市場。
個股方面,板塊內包括北方稀土、天山鋁業、江西銅業在內的20支個股漲停。紫金礦業漲逾7%、洛陽鉬業漲逾6.5%。

不過,以銀河證券為代表的券商認為,股市流動性的拐點尚未到來,不必對貨幣政策的微調草木皆兵,只有貨幣流動性持續大幅收緊才可能使股市進入熊市。而貨幣政策目前仍保持“靈活精準、合理適度”的基調,穩健中性的基調並沒有變,居民財富增配股市的大趨勢尚未發生變化。
而據民生證券分析,近期抱團板塊的下跌體現了市場主流資金在加速調倉,主要原因有兩個:一是前期強勢板塊股價已計入的預期較滿,近期未有明顯進一步利好,高估值本身就是調倉換股的原因。二是部分高確定性標的估值體系從市盈率相對盈利增長比率、利潤收益率切換為貼現率,而貼現率上行就是估值最大的敵人,然後會通過同業公司比較,帶動板塊內估值水平一同下行。
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