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星展香港料今年内地楼价按年持平至升5% 看好中海外、万科、旭辉及龙光
阿思达克 02-22 12:24
星展银行(香港)研究部中国房地产业分析主管王丹预期,今年全年内地楼价料按年表现持平至上升5%,销售面积按年下跌5%至10%,令全年内地房地产市场销售额将按年下跌5%。

星展预期,今年全年内地按揭贷款增幅为高单位数增长,开发贷款则按年呈低单位数增长,均较较往年约16%水平低,反映楼价向上飙升压力有所缓解。但王丹提醒,疫情令去年卖地较少,房企未能及时补充可售资源,因此未来仍会出现供应不足导致楼价上升的压力。

去年全国土地供应为历史低位,房企只投入合约销售额约40%去补充土储,较2017年高峰的76%有所下降。她预期,去年当局出台管控企业融资的「三条红线」新政,相信降杠杆继续为大势所趋,因此估计内房今年投地预算将维持与去年相若比例。

王丹指,今年市场仍有提升风险偏好的倾向,投资者取向或由新经济转移至旧经济股,加上人民币升值、南向资金流入,目前股息率较债息率高出约4%,亦可能吸引资金回流内房板块。她预期,疫情影响下内房即将公布的年度业绩或较市场预测低约5%,带来入市机会,看好中海外(00688.HK)、万科(02202.HK)、旭辉(00884.HK)及龙光(03380.HK)。

物管方面,她指出今年行业分化情况更明显,当中龙头企业增长表现继续强劲,首选有母公司支持的碧桂园服务(06098.HK)及融创服务(01516.HK)。

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