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《大行报告》瑞银下调阿里(09988.HK)目标价至290元 评级「买入」
阿思达克 02-03 09:53
瑞银发表研究报告指,随着越来越多企业参与电商市场,加上行内监管收紧,阿里巴巴(09988.HK)正加大策略及新业务领域的投资以捕捉在直播及日用品方面的机遇,该行相信管理层决定正确,认为竞争比监管更大问题,而规模较细的竞争对手可自由投资,而阿里则更聚焦於盈利。

阿里是内地最大电商平台,所以瑞银认为公司的投资可创造协同效应。2019财年公司经调整EBITA增长减慢至10%,但受惠新零售等,料2020-21财年增速将加快至约30%。

该行认为最重要是投资在内地偏远城市以获取客户及增加客户参与度,与拼多多竞争,不过另外两个范畴亦值得留意,一方面是直播电商,现时相关范畴占GMV逾10%并持续上升,快手、抖音及微信等亦正寻找机会赶上淘宝直播,而抖音亦叫停将客户转向淘宝。另一方面社区团购长远将成主要的线上日用品购物模式,美团(03690.HK)及拼多多均大力投资在相关方面,阿里不能承担让出相关市场,因为高频的日用品消费有助带动其他品类的开支。

该行将阿里巴巴2022/23财年收入预测分别升1.8%及2.4%,以反映淘宝、新零售及菜鸟方面的高增长,但下调毛利率及经营利润率的预测,并将经调整EBITA预测降10.4%及10.8%,将目标价由300元降至290元,评级「买入」。(el/w) ~

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