You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行报告》花旗下调本港首季实质GDP增长预测至1.6% 疫苗供应到位宏观展望料改善
阿思达克 02-01 12:17
花旗发表研究报告指,本港去年末季实质本地生产总值(GDP)按年跌3%,逊该行及市场预期跌2%至2.1%,反映经济仍受第四波疫情打击。经季调後,去年末季GDP仍按季轻微改善0.2%,亦逊该行及市场预期升0.7%至0.8%。全年GDP累跌6.1%。

报告称,去年末季消费、服务出口及服务进口属拖累经济最大因素。消费及旅游相关领域仍受社交距离措施影响。不过,上述三大范畴跌幅已见缓和,或反映金融服务强劲、股市财富效应及线上销售等影响。此外,花旗称,货品出口及进口复苏势头加快,与海关数据一致,亦与内地复苏及本地投资恢复带来进口增加相符。

花旗补充,去年末季投资出乎意料回复正增长,按年升2.5%,扭转连续八个季度倒退。投资前景终见曙光,业务信心开始有复苏迹象。

花旗预期,香港今年进一步复苏,但下调今年首季经济增长预测,该行早前预期今年实质GDP按年升3.5%,随着疫苗供应到位、政治形势降温、全球复苏及基数效应,料宏观展望将会改善。不过,今年首季防疫措施料续压抑消费,特别是影响春节前後的消费,因此下调首季实质GDP增长预测至1.6%,正面因素则是去年同期基数极低。

报告另称,疫情仍是真正复苏时机的最大不确定性,政府采取新策略小区封闭检测,在追踪早前未能检测个案上初见成效。这进取策略有望压低本地确诊个案,让政府尽快放宽社交距离措施及最终恢复跨境旅游。该行料2月24日新一份《预算案》将提出更多针对疫情的津贴及长期措施以提振增长。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account