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《大行报告》瑞银:本月累计南向净流入达2,500亿港元 列北水十大持仓/加仓股
阿思达克 01-27 16:15
瑞银发表报告,指受惠增长复苏预期、内地在岸互惠基金热销,及美国总统拜登上任後中美关系缓和憧憬,A股及本港上市中资股自去年底整固後,本年至今显着上升。内地本土新冠确诊反弹及出行限制或推迟政策正常化,该行相信市场预期人行将透过不同工具保障春节前市场有足够流动性。

报告称,上周人行透过逆回购向市场净注入5,980亿元人民币。中央经济工作会议要求政策不会「急转弯」。不过,该行所接触的投资者,仍忧虑人行在春节後将收紧政策,或损害一些没稳固基本面而估值昂贵的股票。

报告续称,内地在岸互惠基金热销,本月至今累计吸资3,820亿元人民币,打破去年7月所创3,250亿元人民币旧纪录。在2015至2020年间平均每年基金发行亦仅5,660亿元人民币。A股交易额增加及股票融资余额上升反映投资者风险胃纳增加。由於A股龙头股估值已被推高,南向资金转眼精选港股。

报告称,在今年1月18日,南向资金流入达266亿港元创单日新高。本年/本月累计南向净流入达2,500亿港元,去年全年仅6,720亿港元,另2015至2019年平均亦仅2,090亿港元。

瑞银补充,市场现憧憬在低基数下,今年首季内地GDP录强劲按年增长;这或导致非金融企业盈利广泛复苏,去年末季及今年首季每股盈利迎来惊喜,或再推高特定港股。

报告称,预期南向资金将偏好具品牌、平台及创新能力的领先私企。在最近升浪中,个别个股窝轮活动增加,或导致股票显着回调。一般而言,90後新生代投资者偏好日常生活可以接受的上市公司。在在岸仿替品而言,该行持续呼吁紧贴具持续增长及在品牌、平台及创新能力上优势的行业领袖;市场对这类股份愿意付出溢价。

瑞银建议投资者增加对顺周期性股份持仓,以受惠经济上行周期,偏好材料(有色金属、化工)、工业(机械、太阳能、新能源车供应链、自动化)及非必需消费品(家电、汽车及体育服饰)。该行列出南向投资者港股十大持仓、资金流入/流出统计,见另表。

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