中芯國際(0981.HK)：下游需求旺盛，業績估值有望雙升，維持“增持”評級
機構：華金證券
評級：增持
投資要點
半導體高景氣度維持，晶圓代工產能緊缺：全球半導體銷售額從2020年2月開始恢復同比增長，隨着疫情緩解，近幾個月增速有所擴大，2020年11月同你增長7%。但產能的增長落後於需求，同時疊加歐美地區疫情恢復不如國內，晶圓代工產能持續緊缺，各產品缺貨漲價聲音不斷。
國內最大晶圓代工廠，低製程收入佔比不斷提高：根據TrendForce的預測，2020年第四季度中芯國際的全球市佔率為4.3%，排名第五。作為國內晶圓代工龍頭，在需求旺盛的背景下持續受益。公司可提供從0.35um到14nm的工藝製程，其中14/28納米制程的收入佔比不斷提高，2020Q3佔比為14.6%，相比Q2提高5.5個百分點，相比去年同期提高10.3個百分點。
先進製程發展受限，成熟製程需求旺盛：2020年12月18日，公司被美國商務部加入“實體名單”，10納米及以下製程被“推定拒絕”，短期先進製程發展將受限。成熟製程的許可證發放情況有待觀察，但短期不會對公司運營造成重大不利影響。在成熟製程需求旺盛的背景下，公司產能利用率得以提高，2020Q3達到97.8%，盈利能力也得到改善，公司毛利率從2019Q3以來逐季改善，由20.03%提高到2020Q3的26.29%。2020年前三季度公司實現收入208億元，同比增長30.23%；實現歸母淨利潤30.80億元，同比增長314.47%。
投資建議：我們預計公司2020年至2022年每股收益分別為0.05、0.06和0.07元，對應2021年1月19日股價29.60港元的PE分別為70.8、59.0、58.3倍。考慮到公司港股PE（TTM）為56.3倍，相比於A股128倍的估值折價明顯，在資金南下的背景下，我們維持“增持-A”建議。
風險提示：中美貿易關係緊張；先進製程研發不及預期；新產能擴建進程不及預期；下游需求不及預期。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
