香港交易所(00388.HK)：現貨市場持續活躍，新經濟上市熱度高漲，維持“買入-A”評級
機構：華金證券
評級：買入-A
投資要點
◆ 市場表現：2021 年以來，港交所在市場景氣度高漲下表現持續亮眼。2020 年港交所大漲 71.64%（恆指-3.40%），開年以來，截至 2021 年 1 月 18 日收盤累計漲13.41%（恆指+5.99%）。股價持續新高的背後是市場對公司盈利能力的認可。
◆ 現貨市場持續活躍，互聯互通助力南下北上：根據港交所披露數據，2020 年全年ADT 同比+49%至 1295 億港幣，（截至 2021 年 1 月 15 日）今年 1 月日均 ADT同比+156%至 1938 億港幣。互聯互通持續放量，為港股市場景氣度添柴加火。南/北向資金來看，2020 年日均買賣總額同比+126%/+119%至 244 億港幣/913 億人民幣，今年 1 月累計同比+276%/+152%至 593 億港幣/1461 億人民幣。
◆ 新經濟開啟赴港上市新一輪浪潮：【總體】2020 年縱使疫情影響，香港地區 IPO熱度不減，全年 IPO 募集資金總額同比+26.51%至 3975 億港幣，位居全球交易所第二位（僅次於納斯達克），全球前十大 IPO 項目中港交所攬得 3 項。【新經濟赴港 IPO 潮】內企二次赴港上市有力支撐港股 IPO，2020 年 9 家內企二次赴港 IPO，合計募得 1313 億港幣，佔港交所全年 33%。其中不乏京東、網易等新經濟。同時泡泡瑪特、思摩爾國際等也選擇將香港作為首次 IPO 地區。【2021 年新經濟依舊火熱】中概股迴歸港股市場呼聲不斷，B 站擬向港交所申請二次上市，滴滴、知乎等亦傳出謀求香港上市。快手已通過上市聆訊，據媒體報道擬發行 4.159 億股，招股價上限 93 港幣，每手 50 股。
◆ 投資建議：新經濟陸續赴港上市，港股生態結構迎來持續改善。內地投資者對港股市場日益青睞，帶來港股市場流動性改善。港股市場交投活躍度超出我們此前預期，基於此我們將 2020-22 年歸母淨利潤分別上調 3.59%/15.27%/16.51%，長期可持續 ROE 由 25%上調至 30%，上調目標價至 553.61 港幣/股，維持買入-A 建議。
◆ 風險提示：與內地業務競爭加劇、區域/業務集中度過高、中美關係動盪。
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